Right around the time that the Republican National Convention serenaded Ted Cruz with boos for not endorsing Donald Trump,him 2018 the New York Timesdropped an interview with Donald Trump.
It would take something particularly insane from Trump to cut through the kind of ready-made media story that Cruz had created, particularly from a candidate who has made something of a strategy about saying the most outrageous things that come to his mind.
And that's just what we got. In the Timesinterview, Trump called into doubt the U.S. commitment to keep Vladimir Putin and Russia from invading nearby countries. They are statements that immediately drew widespread condemnation, with even the suggestion that the Republican nominee would not come to the aid of allied countries seen as a step toward war -- war that could easily turn nuclear.
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Here's a breakdown of the issues at play.
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Vladimir Putin and Russia's growing military agitation
There might be a sense that the dark days of a military standoff between superpowers is over, and that the risk of nuclear war is something for history books. That sense is very wrong.
Russia remains an enormous military threat to the United States primarily because it has around 1,500 nuclear warheads ready to go at any one time. If you really feel like scaring yourself into a bunker, read this review of a new book from former U.S. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry, whose knowledge of this area is probably unmatched.
Here's the money quote from Perry: "Our chief peril is that the poised nuclear doom, much of it hidden beneath the seas and in remote badlands, is too far out of the global public consciousness. Passivity shows broadly."
And those nukes aren't being held by a terribly peaceful leader.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little tendency to hold back in terms of the use of Russia's military, whether in Ukraine, Syria or Georgia. Those might seem like far-off places, but in military terms, they are the front lines.
Recently, military jets on missions for the U.S. and Russia have come close enough to visually identify each other. Warships in the Mediterranean Sea recently risked a collision.
What is NATO?
Trump's comments to the Timeshad to do with our military commitments to defend any countries that are part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, commonly called NATO.
NATO is essentially a series of agreements that if one nation in the treat is attacked, they are all attacked -- and will respond. The treaty was created with the idea of forming a united front against the Soviet Union and its allies.
Right now, there are 28 countries in NATO, with Poland and the Baltic States sharing borders with Russia. It's those Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) that Trump cast doubt on defending.
"We have many NATO members that aren’t paying their bills," Trump reportedly said, referencing that some countries are not spending an adequate amount of money on defense as laid out by the treaty.
When pressed on whether the U.S. would still back countries that were delinquent on their spending, Trump said: "Have they fulfilled their obligations to us? If they fulfill their obligations to us, the answer is yes."
The expansion of NATO to those Baltic countries had been controversial and seen by many as increasing a chance of a confrontation with Russia. Trump's comments about those countries, well...
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The reaction
As soon as Trump's comments went public, journalists and analysts pounced.
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The news came as something of a challenge to media outlets, which worked to cover the news amid the ongoing controversy over Cruz. Still, the controversy over the comments grew, with a clear narrative emerging: Trump might be just a little too friendly with Putin.
The Atlanticwent as far as to declare "It's Official: Hillary Clinton Is Running Against Vladimir Putin," reasoning that Trump's willingness to abandon NATO commitments were akin to a move to "unmask himself as a de facto agent of Russian President Vladimir Putin."
That's a far-fetched notion but an effective way to detail how big of a deal the NATO comments are while also questioning how Trump would deal with Putin. The two already share plenty of mutual admiration. Putin recently called Trump "a very bright and talented man." Trump said of Putin, "he's a leader, unlike what we have in this country."
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At a minimum, Trump's comments risk creating a situation in which Putin will feel like he can push the limits of his military intimidation of NATO countries (something that his comments alone have arguably already done) -- putting the world at greater risk of a gigantic nuclear war.
At a maximum, Trump has put NATO on the table as something negotiable, rolling back one of the most important strategic deals that has helped make sure small conflicts don't turn into....gigantic nuclear war.
Or, was Hayes Brown of BuzzFeed news put it:
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